Unit economics & 12-month projection — Warsaw prototype
Conservative scenario for the Warsaw prototype. Opens 1 day/week, adding one more day each month until 6 days/week (7th reserved for private events). Promotional pricing at 40% discount from list. 5.5% weekly visitor growth reaches ~216/day by Month 12. 64 founding members get their first experience free. Unlimited memberships at €195/month launch at Month 6 — starting at 2% of visitors and growing 2% per month toward ~50% long-term.
7th day reserved for private events (revenue not modeled).
All figures in EUR (€). Opens 1 day/week, adding a day each month to 6 days/week. 7th day reserved for private events. Visits grow 5.5%/week from 15/day. Day-pass at €24 (40% promo discount). Unlimited memberships at €195/month launch Month 6 at 2% of visitors, growing +2%/month.
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 | Year 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||||||||||
| Days/week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — |
| Operating days | 4 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 221 |
| Visits/day | 17 | 21 | 27 | 34 | 43 | 54 | 68 | 85 | 108 | 136 | 171 | 216 | — |
| Day-pass admission @ €24 | 1,632 | 4,536 | 8,424 | 13,872 | 22,704 | 33,024 | 40,728 | 49,848 | 61,992 | 76,368 | 93,888 | 115,920 | 522,936 |
| Active members | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 44 | 67 | 98 | — |
| Membership @ €195/mo | — | — | — | — | — | 780 | 1,755 | 3,315 | 5,460 | 8,580 | 13,065 | 19,110 | 52,065 |
| Total Revenue | 1,632 | 4,536 | 8,424 | 13,872 | 22,704 | 33,804 | 42,483 | 53,163 | 67,452 | 84,948 | 106,953 | 135,030 | 575,001 |
| Operating Costs | |||||||||||||
| Staff (4 FTE) | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 180,000 |
| Rent | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 120,000 |
| Tech equipment (amort.) | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 8,333 | 100,000 |
| Total Operating | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 400,000 |
| Capital Expenditure | |||||||||||||
| Buildout (Phase 2) | — | — | — | — | — | 28,571 | 28,571 | 28,571 | 28,571 | 28,571 | 28,571 | 28,571 | 200,000 |
| Total Costs | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 33,333 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 61,904 | 600,000 |
| Net Profit / (Loss) | (31,701) | (28,797) | (24,909) | (19,461) | (10,629) | (28,100) | (19,421) | (8,741) | 5,548 | 23,044 | 45,049 | 73,126 | (24,992) |
| Cumulative | (31,701) | (60,498) | (85,407) | (104,868) | (115,497) | (143,597) | (163,018) | (171,759) | (166,211) | (143,167) | (98,118) | (24,992) | — |
Monthly breakeven at Month 9. Revenue overtakes costs once visits reach ~99/day on 6 operating days. The last 4 months generate €147k in profit, nearly erasing the €172k hole from the first 8 months. Year 1 ends just €25k short of cumulative breakeven — Month 13 turns green. By M12, 98 active members contribute €19k/mo in recurring revenue (14% of total).
At Month 12 (216 visits/day × 26 days, 98 active members), the unit economics have turned positive and are accelerating.
€12.98 per visit — 54.1% margin
Even at the discounted €24 price, 216 visits/day spreads fixed costs enough to produce healthy margins. Monthly breakeven requires ~99 visits/day — crossed at Month 9.
If discounts are phased out and growth continues to 250/day (6 days/week = 26 operating days):
The business needs ~€300k to get through the first 8 months. After Month 9, monthly profits start paying back the accumulated losses. By Month 13, the cumulative position turns positive. Growing membership base (98 members by M12) adds €19k/mo in predictable recurring revenue.
Manageable seed round. €300k covers equipment + losses through the valley. The 5.5%/week growth means the painful period is only 8 months, not 20. Membership revenue de-risks the back half — by M12, €19k/mo is recurring regardless of daily walk-in traffic. Private event revenue from the 7th day represents unmodeled upside.
If 5.5%/week growth drops to 3%/week, visits only reach 65/day by M12 — never hitting monthly breakeven. The difference between 3% and 5.5% weekly growth is the difference between a €363k loss and a €25k loss. Membership revenue provides a partial buffer — even at 3% growth, recurring member income reduces the gap.
Promotional pricing at €24 may anchor customer expectations. The €195/month membership provides a natural upgrade path — frequent visitors save money by converting, softening the eventual day-pass price increase. Still, the transition from promotional to full price must be managed carefully.
Starting €200k buildout at Month 6 — when the business is still losing €28k/mo — adds stress. Without it, Year 1 flips to +€174k profit. Consider delaying if growth underperforms.
6 days/week caps revenue at 26 operating days vs 30. At 216 visits/day, that's €28k/month of foregone revenue. The 7th day for private events needs to generate meaningful income to justify the cap.
Growth model: 15 paying visits/day compounding at 5.5% per week (doubling every ~13 weeks), capped at 250 daily capacity. Opens 1 day/week, adding one day each month to 6 days/week (7th day reserved for private events). Day-pass admission €24 (40% promotional discount from €40 list). Unlimited memberships at €195/month launch at Month 6, starting at 2% of visitors and growing +2%/month toward ~50% long-term; members assumed to visit ~8×/month. 64 founding members receive their first experience free. Private event revenue, full-price transitions, workshop fees, F&B commissions, and premium experiences represent unmodeled upside.